Massive problems to start occurring January 1, 1999 in certain industries
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Here's one "Real World" example.
I had incorrectly assumed that big problems would not be occurring on plant floors UNTIL late 99. Apparently problems will happen MUCH sooner.
V.P. Kraft Foods said "massive" problems will start occurring January 1, 1999 ... because of date codes. They've already encountered problems.
From the time a raw material is ordered/delivered from an outside supplier ... until finished product is on grocery shelf ... a future date is assigned that travels back & forth and thru 10 different stages and departments - most within the company, but some also with outside suppliers:
- Product Safety
- Applied Nutrition
- Corporate Purchasing
- Finance
- Quality Assurance
- Marketing
- Manufacturing
- Logistics
- Product Management
- Product Research
- Corporate Microbiology
- Transportation/Distribution
- Consumer Center
Many of these dates are 1 year into the future. So, in January '99 ... the 2000 future date will be used extensively. This is when he expects the "massive" problems to start occurring. Some 2000 future dates have already been introduced into the system. Not many. But, they've already run into some of the problems which will occur in full force later.
The product date is crucial to the entire chain, from manufacture to warehousing. Since time is already short, Kraft will track the few products with 1.5 year expiration dates BY HAND.....
Most of their control panels are home-made, so off-the-shelf fixes are impossible. Their huge distributed control systems (the ones that adjust the formula and weight for things like decaffinated coffee and special cheeses) must be replaced in their entirety because fixing them would cost three times as much. They will accumulate 3-5 weeks of inventory so they can close the plants for that long to install the new systems. Jeff Mitchell
Message 4248437
Kraft has some key suppliers who don't have the money nor the expertise for the Y2K fix ... particularly on the plant floor. In some instances Kraft will be funding the supplier fix. In other instances they will be providing personnel to oversee and manage supplier fix. Some suppliers will be cut-off. Kraft will be discontinuing some product lines.
What was particularly interesting to me is that Don Butte (Kraft VP) has BOTH computer science and electrical engineering degrees. A rare combination.
He was aware of the EMBEDDED SYSTEMS problem back in the early 80's and tried to minimize dependency on embedded systems as plants were being built or re-vamped.
He admitted they would not be ready in time. Yet, Kraft is far ahead of most companies.
Don indicated there are NOT 600+ days to remediate problems on plant floor. Says it's more like 200+ days. Lines have have to shut down, so most of the work is done on weekends or holidays.
He and I were lunch partners two weeks ago, where I brought up the following chip/motherboard/valve problem in the oil industry. Don indicated they've run into the EXACT same problem, but he extended it further into several other additional areas. (i.e. sensors)
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NEW PROBLEMS IN OIL REFINERIES
"But while the company was testing some of the equipment that controlled oil valves in its refineries, engineers inadvertently discovered a host of new problems. Thousands of terminals that control the (dispensation) of oil have old chips with a Year 2000 problem.
"The chips all need replacing - BUT new chips won't fit on the old motherboards and the new motherboards don't fit the old valves. So all the valves have to be replaced too."
"If the company doesn't address all these problems, it soon won't be able to deliver oil to its customers." The beat goes on and on. One things leads to another. Secondary and tertiary effects unfold and nobody knows where they might lead.
December 9, 1997 - Letter to Alan Greenspan
y2ktimebomb.com
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Kraft is working ONLY on mission critical systems. They're at remediation stage. Some of Kraft's competitors are ONLY at inventory and assessment stage and haven't begun remediation.
If Kraft has been trying to minimize the problem since the 80's, and they're running into these types of problems, how about the manufacturing and process control companies, who only recently realized that there were problems on the plant floor ... theirs and their suppliers??? How about the ones who haven't started yet?
There will be plenty of business for TAVA after 2000.
Cheryl
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