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Technology Stocks : Voice-on-the-net (VON), VoIP, Internet (IP) Telephony

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To: SteveG who wrote (512)5/9/1998 1:36:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio  Read Replies (1) of 3178
 
SteveG.,

OK, that's a whole lot better! Would you care to hear one of my
not-so-comedic hypotheses that this article has resurrected in me?

The article: "Top AT&T Executive New CEO of USA Global Link
Vice President, International Leaves to Lead Global Link's
Development of its Global InterNetwork(SM) Project..."

...gave me cause to reflect, again. I don't know Baker, but I
have been in some ways knowledgeable of, or otherwise directly
involved with, the other defections of AT&T's past who
now head up major telecommunications corporations of their
own.<?>.

It's as though AT&T has undergone Divestiture III, IV and
V, with Bob Annunziata going out first in '83 at the time of
Divestiture I (although unrelated to the consent decree or
Greene's shenanigans <hmmm?>) to head up Teleport, then Mandl
to do Associated Comm Corp (now heading their subsidiary
known as Teligent), then Nacchio to do Qwest, Evslin
waving the flag of VoIP with his startup ITXC, now Baker
to Global Link.... and there are others.

These folks are all leaders in somewhat different but
related fields, all very much in the focus of convergence
activities, who are free of the hassles of regulation that T
has historically been exposed to. T would love to recover
them in time, no doubt, which is at the root of my
reflections.

Lets review this in a more structured manner, for a
moment.

With TCG, re-integration into T is already happening, as
Bob A. and Co. are now in the final approvals stages with
the now (but not former) adoptive parent, AT&T. That
takes care of the lucrative fiber optic to the business access
markets. And let's not forget that while he was away, Bob
picked up 1st-Tier Internet Backbone Provider CerfNet,
then BizNet (wireless) and ACC (regional and international
telephony). Not a bad day of fishing, before returning home
for the evening. Congratulations, Bob!

Next, due to the futility it has faced, supposedly, in its local
loop resale efforts thus far, one of T's strategies has been
to develop an arsenal of wireless local loop (WLL)
alternatives. Mandl is fast at work making this a reality for
Associated's Teligent. Coincidence?

Next: Long Haul Fiber:

T's aging national backbone was put in during the early
Eighties, at about the same time that Annunziata left to put
in NY's Teleport, and as time goes by it is fast becoming an
anachronism. In other words, and in my humble opinion,
it's in deep doo doo.

This is because much of it is directly buried, or otherwise
inaccessible for upgrades. And most of it is of the
single-mode fiber variety that is not conducive to massive
or dense WDM/DWDM without making drastic concessions
on regeneration distances, and the associated
costs of doing same, if it were, in the first place, even
practical along its existing rights of way.

At the same time, Nacchio is in the process of putting in
place enough b/w to dwarf the entire bandwidth
warehouses of all three of the erstwhile Top Tier
Interexchanges (ATT, MCI, and Sprint) combined, in part
due to improved technologies now available, and in part
due to the logistics and placement methods they are employing.

[[SIDEBAR: The next step for Qwest is to start deploying
LEAF fiber instead of the non-zero-dispersion shifted
grade they are putting in now, if they haven't already.
Briefly, large effective area fiber, or LEAF, offers a wider
core window in the fiber for an increased number of
effective wavelengths over greater distances. As far as I
know, the only long haul carrier putting in the heftier
LEAF is Level 3, at this time.]]

T's position on VoIP, domestically, has been one of me-too
up until now, with its proposed inauguration of services
next month some time, while rationalizing all sorts of
reasons why this makes sense. They got kudos in the
digerati camp for this, but their efforts thus far appear to be
token ones, and will continue along these lines until they
have the time to do it up right. This means that the
technology has to undergo some level of maturity before T
places too much jeopardy on its quality and reliability
branding.

I don't mean to discount their intent of beliefs in
the future of VoIP, here. Rather, it is still too early to tell
how they will attack this market on the domestic front in a
way that speaks to integrating it in their core offerings.

Theirs is a unique level of scaling that must be achieved,
and this is, perhaps, why they have taken the approach of
deploying it to Worldnet subscribers, first.

And all of this activity surrounding VoIP brings up another
interesting speculation about another of their 'defectors':
Tom Evslin.
---

The international theater is a different story, however. A
company like Global Link is well positioned to do major
impact in VoIP. Baker brings at least the knowledge
necessary to bring it to world class stature (if indeed, it isn't
already), since he ostensibly brings the knowledge
necessary to pull it off.

Interesting, isn't it? how these "spin-offs line up in the
following list?

Annunziata (TCG) - Largest Fiber Optic Bypass/CLEC,
Internet acquisitions and overseas presence through ACC;

Mandl (Teligent) - Wireless Local Loop for residential and
business markets;

Nacchio (Qwest) - Increasing almost exponentially the total
national bandwidth;

Evslin (ITXC) - Offers validation of concept for VoIP
while still with T, and leaves to form ITXC <with partial
funding from T> providing settlements and routing for
other ITSPs, mainly domestic at this time;

Baker (Global Link) - International VoIP.

Makes you think about the apparent loopholes that USWest
used to partner with Qwest the other day, and whether
these -related unfettered ventures may some day return
home to Mom.

With TCG already in the bag, its one down and two... make
that three, no, make that four... to go?

A telling note may be found in one of Baker's *parting* gestures:

"AT&T is, _and _will_ remain_ , a great company and I was fortunate to play a key role with an exceptional management team..." says Baker.

And will remain, indeed. <<?>>

Regards, Frank Coluccio
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