Excellent insight George, I've been mulling over the same question. My theory is that the crash will not be FIAT related, but rate or inflation related. I see the b bands on crude tightening and I think it's ready for a big move, as many other commodities. Platinum and Palladium are vital to the auto industry Benzler is gonna need them catalytic convertors and will have to pay dearly for the metal if Russia's supply is dried up.
I think the secondary crash will come in Jan 99, when the y2k bug is really evident and the Europeans sell dollars and the EURO becomes the world standard (yes this is hard to imagine, but now Japan and Europe are the lender of last resort)
So if this case plays out, Gold stocks will make a nice trading vehicle. In January 99, we can be the 99er's -g-
I don't see a peak war happening here, I think war will break out after we get in the depression stage.
With the market at this level of overvaluation we don't really need war or any big dramatic event to topple it. It vitally dependent on absolute goldilocks perfection, just an uptick in rates to 6.25 puts it in a tailspin.
Proverb for the day:
The fining pot is for silver, and the furnace for gold, but the Lord trieth the hearts 17:3
If this plays out, a lot of hearts are gonna be tried, and it's gonna get really hot in the furnace -g-
bwdik,
bobby b |
