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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jbe who wrote (21748)5/9/1998 6:49:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
JBE,

I have a few thoughts on your comments. First, a mutual fund is probably the worst thing you can do next to TA (I've got my helmet on, so blast away boys!) because the vast majority of fund managers significantly under-perform the market. So, you would be much better served with a buy and hold approach consisting largely of high quality companies with solid balance sheets. Companies like T and CHV and GE fit the bill nicely. Another alternative is to use Value Line. While their criteria are proprietary, they have a very long history of excess returns, and after all, isn't that what you really want?

Re: Your response in point #1 underscores the need for doing your own research.
In spite of your hesitance on this issue I think it is still a good idea, and the research isn't that difficult. You can continue to use you pre-selected criteria, but sit down with the company's 10-K and see what the audited numbers are like. I've found too many errors in those search engines to trust them!

Taking a course or reading a book on financial accounting is a great idea! The problem (in my experience at least) with many accountants is that they really don't understand and develop a forward-looking feeling for the company they are reporting on. They (well, some anyway) transmit the message without appreciation of its meaning.

Here in a nutshell are some of the problems I believe are facing the savvy investor: first, there is no objective measure of value. Any economist will tell you that an item is worth what a well-informed buyer and a well-informed seller agree to. That's why finding "under-valued" companies may be an illusion. Nevertheless, investigation of a company's finances may reveal some hidden weaknesses. Second, I believe there is no system capable of predicting future prices with any degree of confidence (with all deference to value investors, momentum investors and technical investors). So, my approach is to look for stocks with the proper risk characteristics -- ones with which I feel comfortable given what I believe to be the long term growth characteristics of the company.

TTFN,
CTC
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