FSII - The Worst is Over? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Joe Dancy who wrote (1938)	5/10/1998 12:40:00 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) of 2754

Joe, As you point out, the results of the AMAT earnings announcement this coming week could be very significant. The tone of their conference call could set the stage for a semi-equip rally, or awhile longer of bouncing along on the "bottom". It seems to me that if FSII is to be successful, good demand has to come back to the semi-equip sector. I say that because FSII has so much excess capacity right now. Their revenue stream is under $300M per year which says they are running at less than 50 percent capacity. I had first hand experience working in a company that had that situation, and it was very difficult to make money. The fixed costs "eat you alive" and there is very little you can do about it. You can trim your personnel cost by reducing the work force, but the facility costs stay with you. In my previous post, I pointed out there was only about a 1.5 percent change in the group price over the past 14 weeks. The table below looks at the "winners" and "losers" over that 14 week period. One thing surprised me - I thought the winners and losers would be rather equal in number - they were not. There were 14 up, 1 the same, and 26 down. 14 02/06/98 05/08/98 WEEK CLOSE CLOSE PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE PHTN Photon Dynamics 2.94 4.63 57 DPMI Dupont Photomasks 37.38 52.00 39 VECO Veeco Instruments 29.50 39.25 33 PLAB Photronics 26.00 33.13 27 AFLX Adflex Solutions 17.00 21.50 26 NVLS Novellus Systems 39.75 48.06 21 LRCX Lam Research 25.38 29.69 17 ASMLF ASM Lithography Holdings 39.07 43.18 11 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 15.25 16.50 8 SFLX Smartflex Systems 10.13 10.75 6 WJ Watkins Johnson 26.00 27.06 4 CYMI Cymer 20.47 21.19 4 EGLS Electroglas 16.19 16.75 3 AMAT Applied Materials 36.00 36.75 2 KLAC KLA Instruments 41.81 41.63 0 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 22.88 22.75 -1 CMOS Credence Systems 27.50 27.25 -1 ETEC Etec System 47.13 46.38 -2 ATMI ATMI Inc 26.75 26.06 -3 NANO Nanometrics 9.94 9.63 -3 SFAM SpeedFAM 27.00 26.06 -3 SMTL Semitool 13.44 12.75 -5 MASK Align-Rite International 16.13 15.13 -6 BRKS Brooks Automation 17.00 15.44 -9 GSNX Gasonics 12.81 11.50 -10 LTXX LTX 5.13 4.59 -11 MTSN Mattson Technology 7.88 7.00 -11 HELX Helix Technology 22.25 19.63 -12 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 16.63 14.38 -14 FSII FSI International 13.75 11.56 -16 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 24.19 20.06 -17 MICN Micrion 13.50 11.13 -18 TGAL Tegal 5.63 4.63 -18 ASYT Asyst Technologies 27.38 22.50 -18 PRIA Pri Automation 32.75 26.88 -18 TER Teradyne 42.50 34.63 -19 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 24.75 19.81 -20 COHU Cohu 45.25 32.88 -27 CFMT CFM Technologies 17.88 12.50 -30 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 14.50 9.25 -36 ASEC Aseco 9.94 6.25 -37 TOTALS 927 913 -2

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