SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: shane forbes who wrote (12265)5/10/1998 9:28:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (1) of 25814
 
RE: AMAT effect on LSI - (3)

Unfortunatley the little red guy - Satan's little ogre - will win out in the stock market over the short term. Though the stock did respond reasonably well on Friday once it went below 25, it did not rebound with much conviction. Whenever I see a lack of convicition I think of money in a trading range. Could we see 22 - sure. Could we see 19 - perhaps. But this time you can bet that I will be loading up - this is very different from the Oct. LSI announcement of no business. We are at about the same level - low to mid-20s with a much improved outlook. I'll be buying in - even if I have to sell some of my "surer" short term bets. At 22 I figure - very easy double in a year. At 19 - I can guarantee a 150% return in a year. Not too shabby. You can bet 19 or more likely 20 will hold in a disaster.

---

(Also important to put my LSI buying in perspective. I figure for me my current 8% position in LSI is "cautious" optimism - 12% would be "average" aggressive and something like 15-18% of total assets would be "very aggressive". Will have to see just how far I want to build up the LSI portion. Have no issue about going up to 10% n/t.)

(Note to Addi: Important to not put too many eggs in one basket! Even though LSI will likely do quite well, if you are thinking of "retiring" by 2000, the horizon is a bit tight.

Depending on portfolio size and horizon, the typical %ge for the equity portion should be around 7% each in about 12 stocks. That way things won't be disastrous if one or two falter. I have at least 15 more years before I even think of retiring and besides I do not have very large sums of money involved and I will be working again one day soon - so if LSI one day is associated with the Edsel, I figure, no biggie, I'll earn it all back.)

---

(Incidentally it isn't a big surprise to me that Win 95 and Win 98 releases and semi weakness (esp. the PCs area.) are happening at the same time.

Though the superficial reasons are quite different this time the weakness is not a coincidence! Last time it was more exaggerated because of the short availability of chips - thus severe over-ordering in Q3'95 with sales that did not materialize in XMas'95 and thump nothing in chip orders in Q1,Q296. Of course now the Win'98 release is for summer - coincidentally a weak chip season.

Another reason to say poopie to Bill $50 Billion Gates.)

---

Shane
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext