Pat had pointed out a British Telecom site where info could be found on a technical session to be conducted by Cioffi and an associate; subject was VDSL.
It is interesting to me that Amati perceives the size of the VDSL market to be so much larger than the ADSL market. Several things seem likely to me:
1. Amati may perceive the earliest adopters of VDSL to be Fortune 1000 businesses; this is good, because the 6,000' constraint may be inconsequential in this market. As well, these businesses are seeking ways to enable telecommuting and limit travel expense as much as possible, and the technology can easily be cost-justified at the desktop if the primary application is teleconferencing. As well, while relatively well-heeled residential customers may be able to afford (or be interested in) ADSL services, the VDSL market would appear at first glance to be an order of magnitude or more larger (the Fortune 1000 market).
2. We are seeing a lot of technology trials experimenting with ADSL. When should prototypes of the VDSL technology be available for trial?
3. Amati may be directing a larger percentage of their budget toward VDSL than we thought, perceiving it to be a larger opportunity, and knowing that establishment of a technology lead in this area is the first skirmish in the war over standards. Compliance with standards is mandatory in today's markets, and obviously if you can have your proprietary designs define the standard you're that much farther ahead of the pack. This will allow AMTX to get a foothold in the market and grab marketshare while the field is uncluttered with competitors. If they are, in fact, dedicating more budget and effort to VDSL than we thought, this may explain why AMTX may not turn a profit until 1998 or 1999.
To me, it seems the "strategy" is becoming apparent....
Comments? Or is this just too obvious? |
