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To: shane forbes who wrote (12279)	5/10/1998 5:47:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 25814

A nice summary from one of the most honest guys in the semi-equip industry - WJ's Brady: sumnet.com (sees upturn by H2 1999 - that is a long way off - even if the bulls in the semi-equips want to think that Wall Street is 6 months forward looking it is most definitely not 12+ months forward looking! soft upswings don't count... That would be hilarious - they would make the argument that today will thus be 6 months ahead of the next 6 months ahead of an upturn in the business. Do this enough of times and people will never be selling cyclical stocks... 6 months ahead of the 6 months ahead of the 6 months ahead of the 6 months abead of .... the upturn!) Shane. (who will be amazed if the markets do nothing with the AMAT announcement! perhaps things won't be as bad as 1996 - feeling AMAT steal is at $24-28 - would start averaging in at that point assuming it is sometime in last Q of 1998. If it gets much lower than 24 or lower than 20 (fat hopes?) then take out a home equity loan.)

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