Ed, you lose that bet. The last thing I want to do is spend more time thinking about this problem than I already do, but here's my short answer.
1. Computers store time as a number that continually grows larger. A future time is always greater than a previous one. With the century digits inhibited, the next day after 99-12-31 will be seen as 00-01-01, a smaller number than the day before. Time will appear to have reversed, old will be young, and the future will already be known. Any transactions involving the date will be erroneous. Reference the Y2000 FAQ, a compilation of experts on the problem. It can be found through Yahoo search.
2.There's a conglomeration of chips with built in time functions that are used in the automated control of the power, gas, water, and phone companies? Roleigh Martin, a software engineer consultant for a Fortune 500 company, states in a Year 2000 Technology article dated March 2, 1998, that "Most Y2K followers do not fully appreciate the complexity and enormity of the troubleshooting task ahead for these utilities." Roleigh then goes on to describe what seems like an electronic version of a Russian babushka doll. "A piece of equipment may appear as a black box to an end-user, but contains upon inspection a multitude of 'black boxes'(smaller embedded systems) from different vendors inside it. Furthermore, inside some of these smaller 'black boxes', they may contain themselves a multitude of tinier 'black boxes' from still different vendors and so on." The "embedded systems" used by the utilities contain "black boxes" from dozens of different vendors, each with their own layers of technology, which will require that each vendor be consulted for Year 2000 compliance/correction. The following exerpts are from a Fortune article dated April 27, 1998 titled "Industry Wakes up to the Year 2000 Menace. The staff of Ralph J. Szygenda, the chief information officer at General Motors, is "feverishly correcting what he calls 'catastrophic problems' in every GM plant." Before hiring Deloitte & Touche and Raytheon Engineers & Constructors, companies who work on Year 2000 problems, GM's management didn't believe that any problems existed on the factory floor. They found out different. "At each one of our factories there are catastrophic problems," Szygenda reported. "Amazingly enough, machines on the factory floor are far more sensitive to incorrect dates than we ever anticipated. When we tested robotic devices for transition into the year 2000, for example, they just froze and stopped operating." GM has approx. 100,000 suppliers worldwide. Szygenda is also concerned if a "sole-source" provider of a key part "shuts down as a result of a year 2000 problem." The domino effect due to parts shortages, according to Szygenda, could "cause hundreds of plants supplying parts to the assembly lines" to shut down.
3. The solution is obvious: recode everything that has to be recoded and replace all the embedded chips that have time functions that are not programmable. Replacing the noncompliant programs is also an option, especially in light of the cost of assessment and correction...mean figure of approx $1 per line of code.
4. As I said in my post, I don't expect the world to end, but I expect some problems. The point I was trying to make is that I plan to capitalize on the fear which I believe will set in next year. If you don't think that there'll be any problems we might as well end this discussion now, because I'm convinced that there will be *some* problems and I could care less what anyone else thinks about it, so the last word is yours for the taking. :)
E.H.F. |
