Vitas,
Thanks for prompting me to revisit the '92 correction. The price action during that time frame is hauntingly similar to action since 4/6 of this year. The big difference is the correction during '92 was a 5th degree (intermediate wave) correction, and the one we've been in is a 6th degree (primary wave) correction. I show 5/29/92 as being the proper correlation day to 4/6, and the end of the prior impulse wave and beginning of that correction. The correction marked the end of the 3rd intermediate wave of the 5th primary wave of the 1st cycle wave of the supercycle that began August '82.
Inside of that correction, which was an expanded flat (just like this one we've been experiencing), there appears to be an ABC (3-3-5) break down as follows:
A started 5/29, and ended 7/23
B started 7/23, and ended 9/15
C started 9/15, and ended 10/9 (with the 3rd wave of C marking the bottom on 10/5).
I'm gonna work up an alternate that begins A on 8/1/92, will get back to you in private on that one.
I assume your reason for asking me to examine this correction was to correlate it with the current correction that began on 4/6. Believe you me, I've got enough alternate reads right now to make your head spin on this 4/6 current correction, but I haven't broadcasted them in public, not wanting to spin heads more than they've already been spun. I've been working on them in private with RWS & Carl Hittle, and since we're all currently working the long side, there hasn't been a need to officially alter my stance until the market proves that a more bearish alternate read may be correct.
In my bearish read (and one that RWS & Carl don't necessarily endorse), I have it trekking along nearly an identical course that the '92 correction followed. This would give you the following wave count from the starting point of (4/6) of the Primary 2 correction:
A completed on 4/16 in the overnight Globex session. (3 waves)
B completed on 5/4 (3 waves)
C began 5/4, and we may currently be in wave 2 up of C, with 3 of C to follow when this small abc upmove has run its course.
If this scenario proved to be correct, then I would short any break of 1096 with a target of 1040 to 1050. Thus, this explains why I set a protective stop out of my current long positioning at 1096. I did in fact get whipsawed out of my long position late Thursday, and entered a short which I nearly broke even on before going long friday when 1098 was successfully tested (yep, I found that trend line too!).
I have even stronger doubts now that this bearish scenario would unfold after examining '92. Reason: Compare the duration of C to A for both corrections. I have a feeling time's already up for more down.
Regards,
David
P.S. Yep, it only takes one.... But I bet you can't stop with just one!! |
