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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?
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To: Tim Kenney who wrote (9974)5/11/1998 6:05:00 AM
From: Mike Harvey  Read Replies (1) of 13594
 
Good point on international subscribers... Selling internationally presents a whole host of logistical problems and risks. Currency translations? Language translations? Order/Billing system changes? Payment risk? Tax consequences? All solvable, but does the cost/benefit analysis work?

Re: domestic subscribers: My view is that AOL will not grab as much of a share in the forecasted internet growth as it has in the past. AOL is the kind of ISP you go to first, when you don't know any better and when you haven't settled on what it is exactly that you use the Internet for. When you realize a) how the internet works and b) what you want it for, you immediately realize that 1) you don't need AOL; 2) other ISP's deliver pages much faster; 3) other ISP's are cheaper. As a consequence of which you exit AOL stage left.

This has been my experience and that of numerous people I know in similar circumstances. Taking a tip from Peter Lynch here.

Yes, the novice subscribers will continue to be drawn to AOL, so I'm not saying AOL will not continue to grow its subscriber base. What I am saying is the future growth rate of that base will be nowhere near its past growth rates. Upping fees and decreasing advertising nails it down.

Therefore, I am in the short camp.
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