RE: latest news from Indonesia. My comment: food is not eaten as hot as it is cooked, and these people have to think of the worst scenarios possible.
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Monday May 11, 6:32 am Eastern Time
Military seen as key to Indonesia's future
By Brian Williams
TOKYO, May 11 (Reuters) - When international bankers gathered in Japan at the weekend to discuss rescheduling Indonesia's debt, one of the most important documents was not on the table -- a road map to chart how serious the country's unrest could become.
Riots in several Indonesian cities in the past week have set off a search for signposts that might point to whether the present tense situation could deteriorate into a full-blown political crisis involving even the toppling of President Suharto.
Some strategic planners see the result of major unrest in Indonesia -- whether the outcome is more democracy or a military crackdown -- having a profound effect on Asian nations like Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam, which are perched on their own political knife-edges.
While analysts are split on whether President Suharto has already lost control of the situation, there is almost total unanimity that the key player in the weeks and months ahead is not the students staging demonstrations but the country's military.
''The biggest concern now is that the Indonesian military may step up its suppression of students in a way that could lead to hundreds of people being killed and the situation getting out of control,'' said Yoshinori Murai, professor of international relations at Tokyo's Sophia University.
Murai, who has just returned from Jakarta, said a split in the military over how to handle the unrest has become more visible as the riots have grown.
''The schism within the military is becoming increasingly noticeable, and that could lead to internal warfare between the military forces, a coup d'etat and bloodshed,'' he said.
''In that case, President Suharto would have to step down once and for all, with a provisional military government being installed before a new government is formed,'' Murai said.
A senior Western diplomat with long knowledge of Indonesia agreed the country's 500,000-strong military is the biggest part of the jigsaw, but said he believes the crisis has not yet reached the stage where President Suharto could not head it off.
''No opposition leader or military leader has emerged to challenge Suharto and rioting has not yet reached the streets of the capital, Jakarta,'' he said. ''Before there can be a challenge to the president those two things have to happen.''
The diplomat, who asked not to be identified, said there were no parallels between the present unrest and the bloody communist riots of 1965 that brought Suharto to power.
''This time there are no dominoes to fall and no China card, no Moslem card to play,'' he said.
He and other analysts also discount a ''Young Turks'' type rebellion in the military, or a ''People's Power'' revolution similar to what brought about change in the Philippines.
''If there is to be a change, the new leader is most likely to be a senior military figure already in place,'' the diplomat said. ''And you can be sure the military are not going to take orders from a bunch of students.''
However, even he shudders at a breakdown of discipline in the military.
''The military is the one truly national force in the country. If they come apart, not just Indonesia but other parts of Asia come unstuck,'' he said.
The greatest threat from a military breakdown would be to navigation aids in shipping lanes off Indonesia that are administered by the navy.
''Trade in the region comes to a halt under that scenario,'' he said.
Terumasa Nakanishi, professor of international politics at Kyoto University, who closely follows Indonesia as a country which gets 40 percent of its investment from Japan, has a bleaker forecast.
''Suharto is hanging on to a cliff. He is already a lame duck,'' Nakanishi said. ''There is already a more than 50 percent possibility of the Suharto government collapsing.
''After Suharto's departure, Indonesia might not be able to maintain itself as one unified country but split into several independent regions,'' he said.
''Military forces in several regions could wage war on each other,'' Nakanishi said
Nakanishi argues that ripples from how Indonesia handles its political crisis will spread to Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia.
''It would be extremely profound,'' he said. ''The rulers in those countries are going to watch what happens in Indonesia and that could be bad for democracy in Asia.''
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Monday May 11, 6:53 am Eastern Time
Indonesia did not request new Japan aid -- MOF
TOKYO, May 11 (Reuters) - Indonesia's top economics minister Ginandjar Kartasamita did not make any specific requests for fresh aid from Japan in talks here, although he asked for continued support at an upcoming aid donor meeting, a Japanese finance ministry official said on Monday.
A Consultative Group for Indonesia (CGI) meeting is expected to be held in July.
The official was speaking following bilateral talks between Ginandjar, other Indonesian ministers and Finance Minister Hikaru Matsunaga.
Indonesia's trade minister Mohammad Hasan was quoted as saying that he would like tariffs for Indonesian lumber to be lowered and that he hoped that more Japan small and medium-sized firms would participate actively in Indonesia.
The official also quoted Ginandjar as saying that recent social unrest in Medan was triggered by the unemployed and criminals rather than by students.
He was quoted as saying that people in Medan tended to be hot-tempered and there had been unrest in the area a number of times in the past few years.
Matsunaga was also quoted as saying that he was confident that Indonesia would be able to overcome its present economic woes and recover trust from the international community if it continued to implement the IMF economic programme.
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