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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Tommaso who wrote (3451)5/11/1998 8:42:00 AM
From: tom  Read Replies (3) of 9980
 
The era of Suharto is coming to an end as more and more people are realising. He is indeed a master tactician but I think even he will not be able to control the situation now. I wonder if it will happen when he is away in Egypt? Leaders have a habit of having their governments sacked whilst out of the country (Gorbachev and Mobuto spring to mind as recent examples). I accept that there are no obvious replacements for Suharto (save, God forbid, one of his cronies) but neither were there in 1965. My guess is that Suharto's replacement will be a second line general who no one has heard of.

At the moment the stock market is pricing in a poor year or two for corporate profitability but not a full scale meltdown. In this sort of situation I think that its better to wait until share prices get down to 2-3x normalized earnings and/or 80% discounts to net asset values. We are not near either of those targets yet. With interest rates at 60%, time is not on the equity investors' side.
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