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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc.

AAPL 260.36

-0.7%

Jan 7 3:59 PM EST

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To: Richard Habib who wrote (13303)	5/11/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) of 213181

<<Apple still may not be awarded a PE much above where we're at. Why, because for every analyst that believes a true PE is warranted there will be 2 on the steet who believe Apple is simply refreshing it's existing base which may or may not still be shrinking slowly, ie. the company is still dying. Given that pure earnings growth should be able to get us into the high 30's, perhaps low 40's. You might notice that implied volatilities of 99 leaps is dropping nearly 5% per week signalling that the street doesn't foresee substantial price changes in Apples future.>> Richard, I believe Apple will definitely pick up the marketshare as iMac starts selling in the market. Remember, there is about 40% of marketshare belonging to sub-$1000 pc's. It's not difficult for Apple to pick up 10% of sub-$1000 pc's marketshare, which is equivalent to about 4% of overall marketshare. Using '99 leap's volatilities to judge the future price is not that reliable since they are usually still involved in many factors. Besides, the more stable Leap prices indicate Apple is in the waiting and consolidation mode. Phil

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