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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 162.19+2.2%3:24 PM EST
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To: eabDad who wrote (5368)5/11/1998 9:10:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
Z,

Re: 256 mb DRAM??? May be significant in 2003. Who cares? We are at 16 mb today, and were at 4 mb in 1994. Now getting ready for 0.18 technology - that's another subject.

1. 4Mb chip life was unusually long and unusually profitable.

2. Crossover between 16Mb and 64Mb per-bit-pricing just occurred. Crossover between number of bits produced is imminent. i.e. The 16Mb chip is about to be infamous for the shortest life span ever. It looks like the same set of dynamics will cause the 256Mb chip to supplant the 64Mb chip.

3. Normally, a shrink facilitates more bits per chip. Your message implies that moving to 0.18æm conflicts with 256Mb. Really!!!
I would expect that we'll see 256Mb chips produced in quantity by or before 2000; and that 1 Gb chips will be sampling; leading edge will be 0.13æm or smaller.

IMO,

Ian.
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