Ann, I am not a very good person to ask about APM's long-term
outlook. At one time I thought if they could weather the
current cash-flow storm prospects were pretty good because
there are very few independent suppliers and demand will
continue to increase. In that environment, supply would
be a real problem. So I thought. I also thought that
the independent disk makers would be highly reluctant to
enter into contracts with competitors as principal
suppliers, e.g., WDC from IBM, so they would have to
turn to APM and RDRT.
Although I think there may well be a supply squeeze
longer term, clearly the independent drive makers ARE
willing to make serious commitments to their competitors
as major suppliers. Though eventually I suspect the
supply squeeze will occur, it may be so far out that
APM's ability to last is very much questionable to
my mind. IBM, on the other hand, will probably last <G>.
There are other factors that may draw this
out too far for APM also, such as fewer platters owing
to very high densities setting back the rate of demand
increase. Surely eventually we will reach new higheer
demand levels, but later. I believe there is real,
present risk to APM as a viable company.
Others here (such as the much-maligned Stitch) have made
more insightful analysis than I have.
Regards,
Spots |
