I think you highlight the problem of predicting the outcome of the present troubles in Indonesia. How will the Suharto/Muslim/Chinese/Hindu/Catholic power balance change?
In today's Gartman letter, there is a section discussing the student/army clashes in Bogor, West Java over the weekend. They think that the death toll, currently at 8, will rise much higher before the situation is resolved and write the following....
"History shows us always and everywhere that when the first deaths occur, either the situation must be shut down entirely by violent repression by the authorities, or the situation becomes more revolutionary as, more deaths occur, the government becomes more petrified, mutinies within the armed forces occur and chaos reigns"!
I agree that an Iran-like Indonesia is unlikely due mainly to the history and culture of the country and I also agree that the Chinese will bear a large portion of the public's frustration (Suharto will, like any good politician, blame them for almost all Indonesia's woes). I am more positive that they will be able to hold it together. I don't think that the disintegration of Indonesia will be along ethnic lines. I pray that it won't. |
