Sam,
Another way one might state this is "Is what is good for the US good for the world?" or "Is what is good for the world good for the US?" Of course each country manager faces the same question.
I am glad I do not have to answer that question. That freedom allows me to speculate.
I would expect Germany to raise rates, before the US, as they prepare for the Euro. Why Germany should, I have a hard time to make a case. Best to slow things as we enter the change period, than to accelerate, I suppose.
In the US it is becoming harder to find the good news to fuel the rush. Certainly more liquidity will fuel the stock market. Credit is getting a bit easy too, I must say. I just applied for a "no ratio" mortgage. All the bank cared is that I have cash up front, and they do not really care about the source of that cash either.
Currently the yield curve does leave room for the Fed to tighten, but I think the Fed still thinks time and real interest rates are on their side. They may wait for an October slide before causing one.
Best,
Lee |
