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Biotech / Medical : Lidak Pharm. [LDAKA]

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To: Barry Rost who wrote (2)	11/12/1996 1:35:00 PM
From: Michael Collins	of 1115

Barry, I believe the stock is going down for several reasons and I'm not sure when or if it will come back up. First of all stocks in general don't do good around this time of the year if they have fallen a lot due to tax loss selling. Second, their VP/CFO left Lidak ONCE AGAIN which is not a very encouraging sign. Also they were trying to get Lidakol approved as the first OFFICIAL drug for the treatment of cold sores. Well that isn't going to happen. SmithKline Beecham recently announced positive Phase III results for its drug for cold sores (healing was 29% better than placebo and pain reduction was 32% better than placebo - you can look it up on: prnewswire.com Lidakol can at least match the pain reduction as I believe in their last trial, it was 35% better than placebo but time-to-healing is the major question. Also, I and probably others don't have a lot of faith in the LMI technology for melanoma. If the announcement for this is no good then the stock will most likely drop to $1 or less - people are probably waiting to hear something about this before they do anything not to mention the trial on KS with Lidakol. As far as the re-trial on Lidakol, I am skeptical when the company says they have verified experimentally that the last placebo did indeed have medicinal value. I mean when you are testing a placebo preclinically you are going to be darn sure it doesn't work. So how does the placebo not work the first time then after their Phase III failure they come back and say it did indeed work preclinically and in humans. I am concerned about that. I must admit, though, if the stock gets down to $1 or less it would be tempting to bottom fish. I was always intrigued by the fact that Lidakol did so good at aborting the outbreak - they would have a big advantage if they could focus on this but apparently the FDA only considers time-to-healing as the major endpoint. Time will tell the fate of Lidak. Sincerely, Michael Collins

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