Bill,
I'm hoping that the 500 point move up won't happen and I find it hard to believe it will.
1. DD has a $5 gap to fill (that'll probably start tomorrow)
2. GM has a 2-1/2 gap to fill.
3. As long as the long bond is over 6.00%, sell the strength will prevail.
4. The advance/decline on the NYSE has broken down...more damage today.
5. the Dow is sitting 5 points above its 20 day MA (which is flattening from its uptrend going back to January). In the past few weeks it closed below it, signifying the weakness.
6. The new lows are behaving quite nicely (one of the only positives I see).
7. But the new highs are anemic, at best...not a sign of strength.
8. Even early this morning, the down volume was right there with the up volume (maybe some distribution going on).
9. The 98 estimate on the dow stocks dropped again to $449.74....the lowest this year. (throughout the feb , march and april as the dow was going up , its earnings expectations were going down. it was justified by the lower 30 year bond, then at 5.8% or so. The dow can't fall back on the 5.8% yield for now...ie, probably some correction in the making).
10...and most importantly. I picked up some dow puts late this morning...so let's wait another week for your 500 points up , this week I'd rather see it down.
Just a few thoughts
Paulo
PS, has anyone here taken to the oil service stocks. On weakness, UTI, ESV, HOFF, and KEG are pretty good values... |
