bobby, further to my last post about the fades.. Heres someone on Kitco comong to the same conclusion albeit differently..
<<With the caveat that I'm only an amateur at technical analysis, I thought folks here would be interested in some
data regarding the DJIA. As some may remember ( or not, it was a while back I last posted on this ) , I like to use
a non-linear time-series analysis method to look at the behavior of the DJIA.
Looking at the DJIA over the past couple of years over time periods of 1 - 3 months, whenever there has been a
dip or a rise, an indicator I follow called the H exponent has always been less than 0.5, which suggests that over
that time period, trends ( either positive or negative ) tend to get reversed. However, over the past 90 trading
days, H is greater than 0.5. This suggests that trends get re-enforced. This is quite unusual, especially on a
downtrend, since in the past, all downtrends had H less than 0.5. In fact, it is the only time this has happened over
the past 400 trading days.
This suggests that the dynamics of the time-series ( which reflects the dynamics of the buyers and sellers ) has
fundementally changed. One interpretation is that fewer folks are buying the dips, perhaps less short-covering is
going on. It also suggests that the current downtrend off the high may continue. I guess we'll see. >>>
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