Greg, a very good post. A few questions for you.
Don't you think the erratic price rise of ASND is due largely to the street slowwwwwly regaining confidence in the company? Everyone is not jumping on this bandwagon at once. These guys were all burned recently enough to remember.
With current estimates, ASND is overpriced. No doubt about it. This is contributing to some price instability. But the street is coming to the view that this is not the ASND of old. Promise but don't deliver. More analyst's are coming to the view that ASND is now playing much closer to the vest, ala CSCO. Positive surprises will certainly be easier to come by, given lower expectations. And hence, the estimates are expanding, slowwwwly right now.
You stated you think the rise to current levels is erratic and contrived. Erratic yes. But why contrived?
And don't overestimate the sector contribution of this rise. Two big players, BAY and COMS just aren't moving right now.
I think the rise to current levels is deserved. Can we go much higher short-term? Its hard to see that happening without news, contract, upgrade, etc.
Downside risk. Probably limited to market performance in the short-term, or an ASND purchase of another company. Bad news just doesn't seem to be forthcoming any time soon. And I would suspect, the big boys who aren't in yet, will be buyers on the downside higher than 40.
gary |
