Richard & Saif: Richard, your points are well taken. However, I do believe that by watching the chart one can often tell what is happening with the stock. In any event, I like to have sold 70% of my initial investment BEFORE the news is released. With very high risk ventures like this one, if it is a huge hit, my 30% investment will make me enough money, on top of my initial profits. If it tanks, and there is a greater chance than 50% that the well will not turn out, then my losses are minimized. I see no indications to buy right now... as for to sell? I have no comment - you judge for yourself.
Saif brings out a good point with the Carmanah release which I read today. Did you see the stock chart? Stock took a huge dive on a news release that was TECHNICALLY DETAILED, indicating that logs looked good, but the zone was water wet, side wall cores were taken, DST results, etc.... Remember... BIG PICTURE success rate of rank exploration wells? About 10%
One of the logs which are run is a resistivity log. Now, just like when you test a wire if the resistivity is high, that means there is a break in the wire. In other words, the wire is no longer conductive. Air is not a good conductor. When you have a porous rock, hopefully filled with gas, the resistivity is also high. If it is filled with SALT water, the resistivity would be low, as the pores are filled with a conductive fluid - that being salt water. However, the log can be deceptive because if the pores/voids are filled with water that does not have electrolytes to conduct electricity (ie: just like distilled water), then the resistivity would also read high... but the formation is filled with water.
(Distilled water does NOT conduct electricity, whereas tap water does)
Quick and dirty, if somewhat boring, dissertation on resistivity logging.
mike |
