[ Stocks in a Trend: Commentary ]
IMP at 29 9/16 Target.....32.50
FMY at 45 1/16 Target....47 3/4
LARS at 9 5/16 (short) cover....8 1/4
MDRX at 43 Target.......45
SEBL at 23 7/8 Target....29
Utek at 24 7/8 (short) cover.....20
YELL at 17 3/4 Target....20 1/2
Hello again Greg. Thanks for your patience. Here's what I have to say...
Comments:
IMP: The longer term up trend was broken in April, and has traded sideways as the issue has consolidated. Key Momentum indicators peaked around the first weak of January, where a number of my indicators registered signals to exit. Such signals often indicate an oncoming consolidation phase or an outright decline, and now we've got hindsight to prove that it was the consolidation that it was priming us for. It's therefore not quite what I could consider to be in a trend; rather, a trading range. Your entry was astutely made at the bottom end of that channel.
FMY: Didn't download, so no comments.
LARS: I want to focus on the ones that caused losses, because that's where I believe most of the important lessons can be learned from. I believe a participant of this thread, Scott Davis, had some bullish arguments for LARS, and with his success in guiding me to some profitable issues, I have learned to consider his views with greater weight.
I think that from just a trend line resistance standpoint, that a short entry could have been made, but a closer look at various indicators like RSI, Momentum, MACD, and others showed that this was quietly gaining strength, and in a combination not seen since April of last year. Plus, the moment that the price moved above your entry point, there was a breakout registering from the trend lines, and with all those signs pointing up, it looked like a good idea to cover immediately. Congratulations on letting your ego take a back seat on this one.
MDRX: While it is nearing the long term up trend support line, the stock faces a consolidation pattern with an intermediate term downtrend bias to it. I would not classify this as being in a trend. It would appear that a shorter term trading system could find success in such a choppy issue.
SEBL: The price bounced off successfully from the 150 day moving average and at a short term oversold state. Your entry at support looked very good. You might have some trouble though at 26 (and the 50 day moving average) as the price approaches that overhead resistance.
YELL: A trend line breakout as of Friday's close. This was supposed to be on my watch list but I got lazy and didn't catch it. Your upper target is close to my own target of the upper Bollinger Band.
UTEK: No download on this one either.
Hope this helps. Good job on the cover and on YELL.
Regards,
Rainier |
