Mayor, I agree with you there is no "sure thing," in the world of investements. Outside of that world, of course, there is death and taxes as Byron said :-) And God is a sure thing, IMHO, but that is outside and over all of this. And no, I get no messages from "the Man." :-)
OK, so given that, where does DGIV fit into my investement plan? I say "my" because we each are responsible for what we do with our money. Whether we make a lot (as I have already done with DGIV and some other stock) or lose a lot (as I have done with some nameless stocks), the decision is, was, and always will be an individual one.
For me, DGIV fits into an overall investment strategy that includes cash, real estate, mutual funds, and speculative stocks. Duh, no surprise there -- pretty classic and boring. Things you learn from any investement book. The cash speaks for itself, wish I had more of it, but it just sits there slowly losing out to inflation in the long term. Real estate I hate, and now am just down to my home. Enough said. Mutual funds (Vanguard in my case) are nice and relatively safe, although at times they go negative. But that is about as "sure" a thing as you can find in the investement world (JMHO). Now, all of these vehicles, held for a long time, will get me where I want to go -- retirement fairly soon. What they will not get me (unfortunately) is early retirement or the rare shot at huge profits.
That is where my speculative stocks come in. I have probably traded 20-30, I lose count, since the start of the year. Etrade loves me :-) I have guessed right and I have guessed wrong, but have guessed right more often than wrong. This takes a huge amount of DD, perseverance, fortitude, and a little bit of luck. Today I am down to 3 or 4, of which DGIV is by far my largest, although not my overall biggest gainer because I did not get in as low as others did.
So every day I have to look at my basket and make decisions. I think that international IP telephony is where the tech tornado will be for the next few years. So I looked at various companies in this market, some of which, believe me, were real dogs. Everyone is trying to play in this game, and you have some companies that go from medical supplies to VoIP. I liked DGIV because they were already exploiting streaming video, and seemed to be able to penetrate international markets, mainly in the Pacific Rim.
I was very surprised to see the large runup we had early on, which caused us all here to have a justified sense of irrational exuberance :-) But I was not surprised at the eventual level that the stock reached, because even back then my own DD said we should see $8, which we did. I was just surprised at how quickly we got there, and the flow of news in April played a large role in that.
Now we have matured to a level that is still undervalued, IMHO, because of the Indonesian contract announcement, but from which we have retreated a bit. Much is made of the reasons for this retreat, whether MM wash sales, naked shorting, or our own buying and selling. In one sense it does not matter, because stocks go up and down. One of the other stocks that I hold, GMGC, went from 4 to 15 and is not down to a bit over 10, no big deal. Because if you are truly long it does not matter.
DGIV is different, though. On the one hand it has huge potential, but on the other hand it is still in the BB pit. That means that its price movement is driven by other than pure market forces. Are those forces legal? I don't know, I am not a lawyer, but I have been told by those who know that there may be some funny things there. So I spoke with the SEC, and told you what I found. I certainly have nothing to hide, and as you saw from my SEC visit neither does DGIV, at least nothing that they made me aware of. So I will let them do what they get paid to do, look at the MM trading patterns and decide whether or not they are fair.
So back to DGIV. We are now in a news driven stage, and when we don't get it, or if it is not good enough, we get nervous. As Byron said, we should look at the forest rather than the trees, but we are all human with human emotions -- something MMs know too well. DGIV plans to go NASDAQ, sooner rather than later, and this should shield us from that activity and let us be moved by normal market forces as with any stock.
Will we see news this week? Will the price be supported at this level? Will it go up? Will it go down? I don't know. The only thing I can reasonably well tell you, though, is that if you watch every tick you will be disappointed as often as you will be encouraged. That is a very stressful thing to do. I have been doing it way too much myself, although frankly I have not been looking at the ticks as much as I have just enjoyed being here chatting with people that I now consider my friends. Sometimes I even forget to check the price for hours on end, and it is just dandy!
Well, I just realized that I am totally rambling at this point, so I will quit.
Today is definitely an autopilot day for me :-) |
