Here's what they say about ONTAK:
Ontak will be in front of the Oncologic Drug Advisory Committee on June 1-2,
1998.
- Thus, if this meeting is positive as expected, we believe that Ontak
could receive full approval from the FDA as early as October 1998 (the
drug has been granted priority review) and contribute to Ligand's goal
of profitability in 1999.
- We believe that there are approximately 8,000 patients in the United States
with CTCL resistant to other course of therapy- the target market for Ontak.
- We estimate that $50 million in U.S. sales is doable for this product.
- Thus, even if the penetration rate is low, we believe that Ontak
will be accretive to Ligand's earnings in 1999.
- Currently, we estimate that Ontak could sell approximately
$30-40 million in the U.S. and another $10-20 million
overseas.
- Lilly will receive a double-digit royalty from Ligand
for sales in the year 2000 and beyond.
- We believe this is a low-double digit royalty.
- Furthermore, we believe that there is significant potential for this
compound beyond CTCL, specifically in the non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma (NHL) market where the compound has demonstrated
potential.
- In a Phase I trial of 17 non-Hodgkin's lymphoma patients
treated with Ontak, two patients demonstrated a partial
response rate, and one patient had a complete response.
- We estimate that the worldwide market for non-Hodgkin's
lymphoma is in excess of $250 million.
- We believe that if Ontak is approved for CTCL that Ligand
could market the product for NHL with the publication of
positive clinical results.
- If Ontak does demonstrated positive results in NHL,
we believe that this indication could drive sales to
about $100 million. |
