<My take is that you use your spreadsheets to justify your predisposition, which is to bet on the big guy and against the little guy. I bet your calculations show that Lotus will crush NSCP, just like you drew the conclusion that MSFT would crush NSCP. Face it you're wrong about NSCP.>
My advice to you is not to place too much money on your bets. I don't rely on spreadsheets, I use them to guage MONETARY value. Of course subjective value comes into play, but fundamental analysis ALWAYS seems to come out on to in the end, simply check the history books. You say I am wrong, yet I have been absolutely correct about NSCP and MSFTever since I started posting to SI. Why should I face the fact that I am wrong when I am RIGHT. Go back, read the posts, then look at the price charts. You cannot be following the price of NSCP or MSFT if you think that I am wrong.
How do you think MS priced the secondary offering, using the same "spreadsheets" that I did, then adjusting the price according to indications of interest and perceived demand. It is unfortunte that I count money and you consider that "betting against the little guy. I'll say again, look at the historical price charts and NSCP/MSFT postings that I made, all right on point. NSCP share price will drop again, the dilemma is this damn post election bull run makes it hard to guage, so instead of taking a risky proposition I pick a few cheap options (DEC NOV 55 puts) and take a limited risk gamble.
For your information, equity offerings are always made in frothy markets. This allows for the maximum amount of money possible to the client and indirectly to the underwriter. If it is significantly above fair market value, guess who's pocket it comes out of.
If someone were to write a program with excessive code and you pointed that out, would you be "betting against the little guy" or stating a fact. Equity valuation is far more a science than you are making it out to be. |
