Japanese car nav market . . . .
It is hard to tell from here, but the Japanese car navigation market has several players, Trimble/Pioneer among them, that are important. First is probably JRC, but not necessarily by much. Also Matsushita/Orbi, Rockwell, Sony, TRMB and maybe a couple of others. I do not think that the Japanese competitors are technically ahead of Trimble. Pioneer and Matsushita seem neck and neck to me, technically, and probably in the lead for car nav technology.
Given the social/economic structure of Japan, Trimble's market share is quite good. The Japanese are notoriously resistant to foreign suppliers. In fact, they have put up barriers to Trimble in surveying and agricultural applications.
The Japan market doesn't have that much further to expand compared to Europe and especially the US. Japan's world share will fall unless they can export. At this point, Trimble has taken Bosch (European business) from JRC, and Sony has been driven out of the US market. The future of car navigation seems to be in the more complex, value-added products envisioned by Wintel. Here, there is no Japanese competitor -- only SiRF trying to get involved -- and Trimble has the Microsoft AND Intel alliances for car navigation. So, looking strategically, I expect Trimble to increase its present 30% car nav market share over the next five years.
Finally, Trimble is not concentrating on "hardware" in car navigation. It is in the licensing business for software/ intellectual property designs. Margins on this business will far outstrip any other approaches. |
