>>You can presently get a 486 system, complete, for just over $400.
WOW! Even if I build one myself and use really cheap components, I can't do that well!! Motherboard + CPU: $100. Disk $100. 28.8 Modem: $80. 8MB Memory: $50. Video Card: $50. Case + Powersupply $30. Mouse, Keybd, Floppy: $40. OS - Win 3.1 (if I'm a masochist): $100. Or I can use Win95, of which I'm a fan, by the way: $200. Oh, and the 14" monitor: $200 (webTV doesn't need this). And if you want to use your TV instead, you'll need a scan converter: $200. If I opt for Windows95, I'll need a beefier CPU, and more Disk & Memory.
How much time will this take to shop for, build, debug? And if you know of an outfit who is actually selling a NEW, fully supported 486 ready to run at $400 I'd like to find out how they're staying in business.
This actually is all besides the point. Even if stripped down PC's were widely available at these prices, you still need to put significant $$$ in Microsoft's pocket before you can be productive. The beauty of the information appliance is that you can jump right on the internet without significant investment - in either hardware, software, or just as important: Time. Remember 70% of households in the US and 90% worldwide do not yet own a computer. Most of these will not have the inclination to make a significant investment in time to learn the various intricacies of a flexible & powerful OS such as Windows 95. Much less to tinker with Win3.x and its .ini files, IRQ, DMA and Memory address settings just to keep it running. Better yet, let's not even consider 3.x in this discussion.
You may say: "What intricacies? The SiPC will address this issue. Just insert the diskettes and run the setup utility." The SiPC is a step in the right direction, but it's more expensive and still leaves some serious gaps: What if your disk crashes? What if Junior accidently deletes your system directory. Or your quicken data files for that matter? What if you download that doomsday virus that clears your disk? Watch out for lighting storms-a power surge could really fry you!
>>If telcos subisidize WEB TV's, what is to prevent them from giveing away computers? If you were the average consumer, and were offered a free appliance if you signed on for a year with AT&T (much akin to the way they pass out cell phones), which would you choose - a full blwon computer or a WebTV?
Let me ask you: If you were a telco, what would you offer? A full blown PC that would give people so much flexibility and room for error that you could not effectively support it? To say nothing of the $$$ you'd need to pay Microsoft for their OS - all coming out of your bottom line? The info appliance makes support much easier. The telco or ISP would only be responsible for delivering access. The appliance would be easy to use and support. The information services (word processing, spreadsheet, banking, portfolio management, etc.) would be supported by different entities.
As a consumer, I'd look at my needs. If I'm doing work that demands local horsepower, I'll invest in a fullblown setup, with all the necessities - including backup and recovery, power surge protection, state of the art software + upgrades, etc. And I'll cross my fingers about viruses and Junior. But if I just want to consume information and do email (and I'm confident that the majority of the untapped consumer market falls into this category), I would really entertain leaving the storage, administration, software+hardware upgrade chores to the access and content/service providers, and gladly pay my monthly fee for access to an ever-widening array of services, entertainment, productivity tools....
Network Computing will allow people to leverage the power of all those computers out there, of all that software and expertise, with just a simple appliance and a browser. WebTV does it now. The NC and other such appliances will soon jump in. Momentum is growing, and before long you'll see store shelves stacked with these things.
Even if my computing needs grow, looking down the road a few years, I'm confident that the infrastructure will be there. Bandwidth. Is it a daunting problem? Yes. But too many entities have too much to gain from a switch to the Network Computing paradigm. And as a result, the resources of these untold hordes of beneficiaries will be aimed squarely at solving the bandwidth problem and other obstacles that stand in the way of the switch: Telcos & ISP's. Network hardware providers. Web-based software and content providers looking for a massive market. And most important, consumers looking for a quick ramp to the i-way. It's a virtuous cycle. The more consumers get on, the more services will be provided, the more incentive there will be to reduce costs of entry....
Even if I come to rely on local data, the benefits of a universal, simple, and very inexpensive client can conceivably spur Netscape and others to develop an optional browser-OS that would allow direct hardware device manipulation (including disk drives) without the services of an OS like Windows. So how would this differ from what MSFT is doing now? It would be plenty simpler, albeit more limited, and it would be cheaper.
Sadly for Microsoft, these trends runs counter to their business model. MS derives significant revenue from OS software. Unless the trend is broken, the mass-market client OS of the future is the humble little browser based on open HTML,HTTP and CORBA standards. Microsoft gives away its browser in the hope that it will make people rely so heavily on its closed / proprietary technology (activeX) that it can continue to set the rules and thereby preserve its near-monopoly. I believe this strategy, while intelligent and well-advised from their perspective, will fall short. Why? Because, again, too many entities have too much to gain from reducing the cost of access to the internet. And the first thing that can go is the cost of the client OS. If Microsoft wants to play here, they'll need to cut their prices dramatically. |
