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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (21927)5/13/1998 2:19:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
PK, one of the major problems when folks make statements like "the valuations are too high" is that they relate to specific valuation models. But that's not the way it should be. The valuation models should be based on observation of markets and be predictive of the markets. Maybe what the market is really telling us is that there is something wrong with the models. For example, if the cash inflows from 401Ks and IRAs is the principle driving factor for the market, why aren't macroeconomic data included in typical market valuation models? Why do the models simply stop with the choice of an appropriate discount rate? Isn't it true that if cash inflows dictate the capitalized value of the market, then the forecasts ought to depend on such things as the employment outlook, savings rates and investment rates?

Just some thoughts as I watch Dell soar past $98 <VBG>

TTFN,
CTC
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