Carl,
A friendly road sign popped up today. A small "coil" pattern (a.k.a. symmetrical triangle) from 2:40pm til right into the close. I luv these!! Just take the width of the base (5.5 S&P pts.), and add that amount to the breakout point of the coil (triangle), and you get your target for a reversal. This will definitely create a bear or bull trap, depending upon which way it breaks, because prices will trend strongly for 1 to 2 days in the opposite direction after the initial break target is met, either in Globex trading or early on in the a.m. day session.
I'm still heavily long from last Friday morning near the open (futures only), and I'll be looking to fade the initial 4 to 6 point move in either direction from the 1124 area, clearing out of all longs if it sees 1128-1130 on the initial break, or adding more if it sees 1118-1120 first. My belief is it will break down and create a "bear trap" right after the report, then reverse hard north and visit the upper 1130's by Monday afternoon. But I will be totally flexible, and let the market tell me which way it's going by the direction of the break.
Either way, I think your and RWS' scenario is still a decent possibility, especially if the market breaks up first tomorrow, and creates the bull trap in the 1128-1130 area.
Good Trading,
David |
