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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND)
ASND 206.52-1.2%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST

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To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (46785)5/13/1998 6:52:00 PM
From: Greg Jung  Read Replies (3) of 61433
 
PEG=1 dilution worksheet for 30% growth rate


Ascend Communications:
Earnings dilution worksheet
Assume 30% Total earnings yearly growth
Trailing EPS Assume 5% dilution/year
==> 23.8 Forward PE Multiplier
#SHARES $ EARNED EPS
3/31/97 193.5 40.3 0.21
6/30/97 195.9 43.0 0.22 PEG=1 $$ Cash
9/30/97 198.3 46.0 0.23 Value (2) per share
12/31/97 200.7 49.1 0.24 27.6 1.00 (3)
3/31/98 0.937 203.2 52.40 0.26 29.5 (1) 1.26
6/30/98 205.7 59.69 0.29 31.1 1.54
9/30/98 1.080 208.2 63.74 0.31 32.8 1.85
12/31/98 1.157 210.8 68.06 0.32 34.6 2.16
3/31/99 1.238 213.4 72.67 0.34 36.5 2.50
6/30/99 1.306 216.0 77.60 0.36 38.5 2.85
9/30/99 1.378 218.6 82.86 0.38 40.6 3.22
12/31/99 1.453 221.3 88.48 0.40 42.8 3.62
3/31/00 1.533 224.0 94.47 0.42 45.2 4.03
6/30/00 226.8 100.88 0.44 47.7 4.46
9/30/00 229.6 107.72 0.47
12/31/00 232.4 115.02 0.49
3/31/01 235.2 122.82 0.52
6/30/01 238.1 131.14 0.55

Notes:
1. Due to higher earnings in QE 12/96 the actual trailing eps as of 3/31/98 are $1.
so earnings subsequent to QE 3/31/98 are adjusted by this amount.
2. "full value" is calculated as
(Forward PE factor) X (forward earnings) / (anticipated #shares)"
3. Cash is accrued from earnings, with 4% annual after tax interest

To arrive at today's market value of $44 under dilution such as occured
since QE 3/31/97 (9.5%), a sustained earnings growth rate of 45% is required.
This leads to a forward PE value of 32.4 and a $55 valuation on Jan 1, 1999. (For market PEG=1). For this table I assumed a gradual moderation of dilution to 5%.

Recent earnings growth rate has been substantially less, and even after an
upgrade by COWEN & Co. the most optimistic is 30.

This rate discards substantial "special charges" of $111 million and other
factors that result in an overall loss for 12 months to December 1977.


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