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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 228.68

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Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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To: Clarksterh who wrote (19421)	5/13/1998 9:42:00 PM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (1) of 70976

When the 486s first came out, they did cost a mint, relative to the current 386s. But arguments over individual chips miss the point. I'm talking about industry-wide ASP. The trend toward greater integration increases the unit price of the chips. One (mega)chip that does four things costs more than each of the four (micro)chips it replaces (therefore higher ASP), even if the megachip costs less than the four microchips combined (lower cost/function). ASP growth and Moore's Law can, and do, coexist. The following data are from ICE's "Status 1998" report, which I think draws largely from WSTS data: Year ASP ($) 1982 0.95 1983 0.96 1984 1.01 1985 0.96 1986 1.00 1987 1.09 1988 1.32 1989 1.39 1990 1.28 1991 1.35 1992 1.51 1993 1.75 1994 2.17 1995 2.68 1996 2.40 1997 2.22 (Est.) 1998 2.10 (Forecast) I don't know if this data is on their web page, but you can vet their credentials at ice-corp.com. Does this explain the situation a little more clearly? Katherine

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