Ada Marie,
Perhaps it is too complex to find the truth due to too much information, too little information, conflicting information, and big companies in a very complex dynamic market.
I managed a large multimillion dollar branch office for many years. Making the numbers we projected ourselves was more art then science. We never missed a projection by more then 5%. My replacement recently showed up in my office looking for help. The manager needed help to explain missing the first quarter projection by almost 50% to senior management. The basic problem was a bad projection combined with a poor branch plan. No planning consideration for external factors such as client needs, competition, or general economic conditions had been considered during the projection and planning process. The only consideration was, "how much do we want to grow, and how do we get there?" I have been out of that position for a little more then a year. The manager made no search for the truth through all the too little, too much, misleading information of a large complex dynamic market place. I have to wonder how many middle managers making those projections today are making the same simple mistakes.
We as investors make the same types of searches for information. In the end, our judgement is an art not a science. The endless flow of constantly changing information does not allow a scientifically correct decision until after the fact. Let's hope we are within 5% and not off 50% in our judgement.
Sorry for the rave, long day. First sunshine today in two weeks here and I was trapped in a long meeting with no windows this afternoon.
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