Joseph,>>>Great news for TK...indeed, today more bullshit will come <<<
Or, is this the pause that refreshes?
Let's face reality. We will not see growth year over year the way we saw growth in 1995-96 every year. Growth in those two years resulted from the introduction of Windows 95 and the totally unexpected explosion of the Internet. Gates' timing could not have been better.
But, growth will continue. There is no doubt about it. We may have negative growth this year because of Compaq stupidity and greed and Asian financial turmoil. But, growth will continue second half this year and full year next - but at a slower rate than 95-96.
The next time we see 95-96 type growth will be when Intel rolls out Merced and the Telcos roll out ADSL.
Senior citizens will Get Next as they go online to play bridge, chess and simultaneously converse with buddies or strangers online without leaving their homes.
The MTV generation will become the MPC generation. They will be able to program their own music/video/game/entertainment on demand as opposed to having Sumner Redstone program it for them. Homework will go online as well as most vocational education.
Just as word processors pretty much did away with secretaries and the purely secretarial task (as opposed to tasks assigned to assistants), the Internet will do away with the middleman - travel agents, brokers of any kind, the traveling salesman (order takers as opposed to bs consultants), and non essential customer service requests.
The workstation and server markets will explode.
Wintel will dominate in hardware and software the way IBM used to in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. IBM will reinvent itself as it goes into services - that is where Lou Gerstner is more comfortable.
Yes, TK has one more opportunity to keep the lid on Intel - but that is pretty much it.
Mary
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