Sorry, I don't understand "burst mode" but is a good info. Maybe I make it easy to read for you. I hope you like it. Bye.
A PRIVATE INVESTOR'S ANALYSIS
CNTR stock is poised to potentially become one of the most successful turnaround plays ever in the software industry. Trading as low as $3.00 per share on 11/08/96, CNTR is considerably undervalued with an impressive Price/Sales ratio of only .58 (versus a software industry average of about 4), and possibly one of the best value strategies in the market even thought it is currently still above Centura's tangible book value per share.
While the company was never profitable since its IPO in 1993, it announced an apparently solid reorganization plan on January 2, 1996, and has since made considerable progress financially and in positioning the company's product line to more aggressively meet emerging market opportunities in next-generation client/server computing.
Financially, the company recently (3Q) reported its third profitable quarter (with new 32-bit products introduced in May already accounting for 35% of sales!); and has somehow managed to reduce its operating expenses by 29% while developing promising new 32-bit development tools that support both Java and ActiveX controls and can connect to industrial strength databases using native APIs (including the industry's first intuitive Windows development environment for SAP's R/3), and continuing to enhance its highly regarded SQL product line!
SOFTWARE INDUSTRY RECOGNITION
The company's reputation for technological innovation, excellent product quality, and aggressive future market positioning (measured in months in Internet time!) is not only well deserved, but has also been clearly documented in a variety of articles in leading trade press publications such as InformationWeek, CommunicationsWeek, Computer Reseller News, ComputerWorld, Datamation, VARBusiness, and even emerging publications like Netguide. CNTR's key market position in the software industry is also reflected in the fact it has long been one of a hand full of companies representing the software industry in CommunicationsWeek's 80 Index; and was more recently added to TechWeb's 200 index (although it is still erroneously listed as GPTA!).
GLEANED FROM THE RUMOR MILL
Rumors have been recently circulating of merging/buy out talks with players like Informix or, more likely IMHO, financially strong Computer Associates. Computer Associates, who already owns more than 10,000 copies of SQLbase and has an outstanding multimillion dollar loan to Centura Software, makes an excellent suitor because it lacks powerful front end software for its vast database engines. Given Centura's currently low acquisition cost and the rapidly accelerating pace of Internet/Intranet development, it could feasibly make more sense for Computer Associates or other suitors like Informix, Oracle (who already tried once), or even foe Microsoft, to simply buy out the company rather than attempt to develop its own tools in-house from scratch or, in the case of Microsoft, to kill the threat of growing competition given that Microsoft currently still lacks a veritable front end for its own SQL Server.
Takeover scenarios vary widely of course, but a buy out range of $12.00 to $20.00 seems quite plausible given the time-tested quality of Centura's previous products and the rapidly gaining acceptance of its new 32-bit Web enabling tools.
OTHER IMPORTANT FACTORS
Centura's beta is interestingly low and possibly related to the relatively small number of investors (currently less than 300). CNTR (formerly GPTA) traded at one point for more than $30.00 per share, has a 52-week high of $8 1/8, a 52-week low of $2 7/8 and, as mentioned earlier, is currently trading for about $3.00 (11/08/96). Factors contributing to its long slide to current levels include its until-recently unprofitable history, long-term investor apprehension resulting from the founder's retirement in early 1996, a slowly but steadily worsening liquidity situation, delays in filing its 2Q report, a recent name and ticker symbol change, and uncertainty (rapidly disappearing by the way) over the level of acceptance for its new line of Web enabling products.
WHO IS INVESTING IN THIS COMPANY?
Current investors in the company include software industry expert Bruce D. Scott (co-developer of the original Oracle engine who owns 10.5% of the outstanding shares), Umang P. Gupta (retired founder who still owns 18.5%), Venrock Associates (one of the most successful aggressive-growth capital firms who owns 9.08%), Novell (8.61%), Oracle (who, after having been rebuffed once by Mr. Gupta, still owns 7.46%). And institutional investors the like of New York State Teachers Retirement (122,000 shares), Lighthouse Capital Management (57,550 shares), Rockefeller Financial Services (54,828 shares), Vanguard Index Small Cap. (48,300 shares), Vanguard Index Total (45,600 shares), and DFA U.S. 9-10 Small Co. (33,700 shares), and others with lesser numbers of shares.
Of general interest to everyone considering investing in Centura should be the encouraging fact that more conservative institutional investors have also started nibbling away such as Barclays Bank (who acquired 216,454 shares in 2Q), Bernstein Sanford Co. (who bought 125,000 shares also in 2Q), Dimensional Fund Advisors (who bought 114,600 shares), and others buying lesser numbers of shares. New institutional investors buying-in during 3Q have up to 45 days after the end of the quarter to file holding reports and will not be known until mid-November (it will be interesting to see who has been buying all those 10,000 to 50,000 blocks during the last few weeks while insider trading reports still show no recent activity!).
Of particular interest to me personally is the fact that I have discovered a strange pattern of gradually-lower bid/ask sizes which, if my findings are correct, have gone as low as 10 (I was not even aware someone could buy/sell blocks this small. Could someone be trying to manipulate CNTR's performance perhaps in the hope of receiving more shares as a result of the recent settlement which is tied to share price?).
A PRIVATE INVESTOR'S RESEARCH-BASED FORECAST
Centura Software is expected to have a profitable 4Q (perhaps marginally but profitable nonetheless) in spite of the high costs of new product introductions and an expected $9 Mil charge against 4Q earnings for the recent reorganization.
CNTR is currently engaged in an aggressive recruiting campaign and hiring from programmers to marketing to VP-level management (see their Web site and/or call their Human Resources Department!).
And last but not least, their long-awaited marketing push has apparently begun with an impressive ad in this week's PC Week magazine (thanks to Jim Malone for pointing it out!).
Note: A corporate background section will follow for those new to the Centura Software saga.
In closing, I would very sincerely appreciate everybody's active participation in this thread and welcome not only comments or questions but also opposing views of any kind. To that extent I also promise to reply to every posting directly addressed to me (you can also E-mail me at 105211.140@compuserve.com if you prefer!)
WARNING
While every effort has been made to post only accurate and easily verifiable information, I am only human. Therefore I strongly recommend that anyone interested in Centura also carries out their own research. Let's all continue to learn and hopefully profit from a collaborative effort! Whether Centura's looming potential is actually realized is still to be determined, but anyone looking for aggressive growth and a stomach for risk should seriously consider investing in CNTR! (Do you remember Oracle going from $27 to $5 and now being widely regarded as a powerhouse and trading in the $40 range?)
Good luck to everyone but, if you actually read this far, you probably won't need luck because you possibly already have the patience that might be required to wait for CNTR to bear potentially incredible results (specially if the target of a likely take over in 1Q or 2Q, 1997).
COMPANY BACKGROUND
Centura Software Corporation (CNTR), until recently known as Gupta Corporation (GPTA), was founded in 1984 and has traded on the NASDAQ exchange since 1993. The company is one of the leading providers of client/server development and deployment software. Worldwide, more than 100,000 developers have licensed its award-winning SQLWindows application development environment and more than a million users have deployed its SQLbase database management system.
The company's new Centura product line consists of robust, Internet-enabled application development tools, a powerful relational database, and transparent connectivity software.
COMPANY'S CUSTOMERS
Centura's customers include the market research leader ACNielsen; automotive giants Ford Motor Company, Mercedes-Benz, and Toyota; telecommunications' 500-pound gorillas AT&T and INTELSAT; globally automated Seagram; financial powerhouses ADP, Duff & Phelps Credit Rating, Deutsche Verkehrsbank, Citibank, Massashusetss Mutual, Merck, Price Waterhouse, and Allstate Insurance; manufacturing giants Siemens, and AEG Hausgerate AG; government organizations like the State of Delaware, and the County of Ventura; military customers like the USA Air Force's Space Command, the British Army, and two new US Navy sites; retailer JC Penney; long time software customer PeopleSoft; utilities such as The Southern Company, and Ontario Hydroelectric's Nuclear Power Facility; oil and gas international presence Arco; transportation players United Airlines and Singapore Airlines; aerospace giant Rockwell International; parcel service leading contender United Parcel Service; world-acclaimed and by many accounts one of the Internet's Seven Wonders the Louvre Museum; plus a slow but steadily growing list of many other leading companies in a variety of different industries.
Potential customers who have shown an interest in Centura's products and/or attended their many recent conferences include Internet banking leader WellsFargo, online factory outlet Gateway 2000, and Internet communications services leader MCI.
COMPANY INFORMATION
For new product information, upcoming conferences, hiring opportunities, case studies, etc., you would probably be well advised to start with the Company's Web site, and then resort to your favorite search engine and/or research methods to get third-party confirmation.
Centura Software Corporation
1060 Marsh Road
Menlo Park, California 94025
(415) 321-9500
(415) 617-4690 Fax
(415) 617-4728 Investor Relations
www.centurasoft.com |
