[HAMASAKI] '..alliance with Mabul, Boris, and Casey Ltd. to solve Y2K'
'On Thu, 14 May 1998 03:53:42, jbernier@microtec.net (Jacques Bernier) wrote:
> Anybody know the number of Indian programmers actually working on
> "developed countries" Y2K code remediation (or sabotage)?
It's not a lot. Here are some numbers, some solid, some rumor.
There are 50,000 IBM style mainframes (Amdahl, FSI, Hitachi, Comparex, etc.)
COBOL programmers (from Gartner) 900,000.
That's 18 programmers per mainframe. I've seen one mainframe served by hundreds
of programmers and some mainframes have no programmers.
Indians programmers working on Y2K.... 20,000 (maybe, I've seen this in
Gartner).
Programmer/years needed to fix Y2K, mainframe only... 1-2 million (recent press
comments, ) 1 million at 100K/year = 100 billion dollar problem.
my estimate... 10 million programmer years, at 100K dollars/year = 1 Trillion
dollar problem. 10-15 years of deferred maintenance for every programmer.
Hmmm, looks like I win again.
The reason the Indians, Russian, Irish, etc. have been in the press as solutions
is, well, Biz-wire, the Press Release service, goes to the media. The media is
clueless about technology so they eat up the "ABC Inc announces strategic
alliance with Mabul, Boris, and Casey Ltd. to solve Y2K " Come on, they
have an old IBM AT, a copy of "COBOL for Dummies" and a bunch of smart, eager
guys (gals too) who were waiting tables at the Hilton yesterday... today,
they're legacy systems experts.
This is a non-issue and a non-problem because, 1) they couldn't do the work
anyway (again, educated, smart, hardworking, eager does not equate to
experienced, qualified, expert.) 2) the work isn't being done. The numbers do
no support it. It would take every company increasing their budget like GM did.
3) there isn't enough time to ramp up the work at this end, where are the U.S.
end vendor reps? 4) there's something like a DS3 total capacity between the
U.S. and India, not enough to move the remediation. When does that new fibre go
into production?
>
> The Prime Minister of Canada just announced sanctions against them.
> The US is doing the same. Again the "holier than thou" approach.
>
> Panic in the boardrooms!
>
> I think the arrogant "First World" is just about to receive the
> "Mother of All Cream Pie". Gate's one was just a beginning.
>
> The anglo-saxon world is cornered because of its high dependance on
> technology. The "prol‚taires" and other unwashed are smelling blood.
>
> This is not a pretty picture!
None of it is but it doesn't matter because the work wasn't being done anyway.
>
> JB
> Montr‚al QC
cory hamasaki 596 days... game's over.
____
Subject:
Re: Does India hold advanced countries by the b...s?
Date:
14 May 1998 12:11:21 GMT
From:
kiyoinc@ibm.XOUT.net (cory hamasaki)
Organization:
IBM.NET
Newsgroups:
comp.software.year-2000
References:
1 |
