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Strategies & Market Trends : Investment in Russia and Eastern Europe
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To: Manfred Sondermann who wrote (117)5/14/1998 12:16:00 PM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 1301
 
You are right, they might have to devalue the ruble because of the
mounting debt problem. The central bank was using oil money to
control the ruble. Now the government has sold a lot of state
property, and will have to rely on Taxes. If it runs out of
that money, the ruble will shoot up. This will for sure
create unrest, which could lead to a change of power,
hopefully peaceful (2000 elections). Return of communists will be
an option. The problem is that the Duma is a bunch of people who
don't understand that there is no money and that they have to pass
the Tax law quickly. They do understand the word "cuts", however,
to which they object. Besides, they don't really care, and the
majority would like if the government fails to achieve its goals.
The government, however, looks very competent right now. It won't
be easy, though. -Vi
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