Yes, and if you don't think you could endure such a fate, then you should have avoided the stock. Like John, I am seriously pleased with some of the things said in that analyst's conference: It was Sam Wahlstedder (sp?) who said "this company really has a LONG way to go". Of course, you could take that to mean that they haven't even gotten started even at this late date, but his tone suggested a different conclusion. In fact, he mentioned that he had started Amgen and one other company and, in effect, I think I heard him saying that Igen has what Warren Buffett (my description, not his) would refer to as a "franchise" - a superior system that is unique to the marketplace. Now someone asked about another company which apparently is marketing a product. His response was that they had a good product, but this is going to be a multi billion (think he said 4 billion) dollar market that will be divided between Abbott and Roche (selling Igen's product) and that it takes huge money to play in that market. That mentioned company might merge, but it is arriving too late with too little money to take share from those two. After describing how close they were to a POC marketing deal - I believe it was at that point in the discussion - (on a basis of 1 to 10, as close to a 10 as you can get without being a 10; but understand it still might not happen), he noted how terribly difficult it is to work out an agreement with a huge company, and how very fortunate Igen was to manage to tap BMG for a 9% royalty on top of an investment of millions. "You can be close and still not get there". He recognized there was disappointment when share prices drifted down ("but there really is nothing I can do about that") and "you have to consider that when an announcement is made so that people want to buy shares, the float is thin and there are not many shares which can be bought!". He also discussed the lawsuit, within limits, indicating that an audit was slowly moving forward on BMG's German activities and "the way they are dragging it out is a good indication we are going to win that suit" - "they are not acting like a good faith partner in an agreement" - and he did mention that Lehman Brothers was doing the negotiating and trying to work out a settlement. He was pretty blunt in pointing to areas where he suggested Igen was shortchanged: "They even put a 2010 machine into a doctor's office!" and the estimate of 2.6 million being royalties still unpaid was sort of a minimum of what they believed to be due. Now, he said that even tho in suit, there still was a good ongoing relationship with BMG on an operating level. But he said that research was going forward toward a third stage: disposable test equipment that was not quite all electsys. I didn't understand just what that was. I did not catch what John mentioned earlier: that those tests might include blood gas and electrolytes - but I have seen those mentioned somewhere else. He did mention that there was over 30 tests now, and in a year there should be 60; that two were propriatery to BMG. Don't recall what those two were. And finally, he said it is like the razor blades. The money will be made not from all the machines sold, but from supply of the test support products.
These are the things I believe I heard. I made no recording or notes, but I think I at least captured the spirit of what was said. Does John have any comment? |
