What you say makes a great deal of sense...I do think the India nukes and Indonesian angst spell trouble for Asian economies.
However, my general MO is long-term investor, not trader. Interestingly, NBR has a greater ten year compounded share-holder
return than Microsoft (!), over 40%p.a. This is a well-run company
that did very well (long run) in the last major down-trend in its
industry.
Regarding the price of oil, I believe that it is a no-brainer that it will at some point start back up. The question is when. I'm willing to hold in the meantime. My hunch is that something unexpected will be the catalyst. Also, my research - e.g. the fairly recent special coverage in Scientific American - indicates that there is far less of an oil glut than people seem to think.
As a final point, NBR is a conract driller, not a company directly dependent on the price of oil. Based on reported earnings, they're not doing too badly even at current price levels.
I also hold CDG, RON, ESV, GLM, and TBI.
Best wishes HD |
