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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Michael Burry who wrote (4062)5/14/1998 5:01:00 PM
From: Allen Furlan  Read Replies (1) of 78523
 
In the early 90s I subscribed to a newsletter(Astute Investor) written by a PHD who simply ran screens and let individual investors do their own research. This was before I discovered the AAII and subsequently internet screening capabilities. The author always had one page that was a list of net-net value stocks. At the end of one year I recapped the results and was impressed that these stocks did significantly better than the S&P Index. In those days his lists contained from 25-30 stocks each month and there was a good turnover because many of the net-net stocks had good pops based on some surprise announcement.
I guess the moral of the story is that net-net criteria is useful and if market corrects significantly the number of opportunities will increase dramatically. Also it is interesting to note that both hydea and pso were on those 90s lists. Corollary is that they haven't done much in 7-9 years.
Another comment for the thread. If you believe that a major market correction is highly probable before the end of the year consider writing bear spreads using January puts. Today I did a 10 by 10 of Dell Jan 90 over Jan 85 for $2400 net of commissions. Havn't the nerve to sell short as a hedge but willing to speculate that Dell will fall from its own absurd weight. Choose your own favorite overpriced stock.

For a last idea for any other conservative senior citizens consider ORU. In my opinion the ED buyout has a very high chance for success. Shareholders(2/3) would be nuts to turn down offer of 58.5. Because ORU is so small compared to ED, monopoly concerns not likely. Downside is that 3 state commissions must approve. I am willing to take risk for 14 % annual return if merger completes(20-25% loss if deal collapses).
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