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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: jbe who wrote (22029)5/14/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: 007  Read Replies (2) of 95453
 
Funny post jbe. I think you've made an excellent critique of the weaknesses of FA. Fortunately, we've already been through the TA vs. FA battle and I think both sides should declare defeat.

Personally, I think the short-term moves are often easier to explain by TA. TCMS has solid support at 10, so it's a very safe buy there. If it looks good to a lot of people at 10, then you get a lot of buying when it reaches that level. In the long-term, it will probably only continue to rise if the FA is strong.

I think that if you can't explain a price's movement with TA or FA, then it's probably IE (Irrational Exuberance). All this supply/demand stuff is from the actions of people, and people tend to be emotional and irrational - especially when money is involved.

Look at this thread. When the drillers are rising everybody makes plans for some eccentric festival on the deck of a rig far out in the deep blue. When they're falling, we've even had posts about sexual dysfunction. And in this case, Viagra can only cure the symptom and not the problem. People are helplessly emotional.

Don't expect too much logic when the market is really high or really low. Near the height of bull markets there are buying frenzies and near the bottom of bear markets there are selling frenzies. You just have to see it all as an opportunity.

Best Wishes,
007
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