RE: NUKE
I like this pick & will be watching it closely.
I looked at the web site & the patent & here is what I think:
Web site: spellcheck gol-durnit! Epitaxy is misspelled in the CEO's bio, very bad for a semiconductor company.
The IEC device is very interesting and seems to be near-term. Note that this device will probably never produce fusion power -- they mention a 10^10 difference between power in and power out.
However, the market potential of a small (15 cm Dia.) neutron source is very good. Neutron beams are one the best ways to scan for plastic explosives and the FAA is currently running a program to assess this technology. A neutron source that did not require radionuclides would have a big advantage in this application. The metallurgical test applications could also be widespread. As a piece of illustrative trivia, there is a new method of determining the phase equilibria of metal alloys using neutron diffraction beyond the more obvious test applications.
The diamond patent looks good, but a lot of CVD-diamond companies have fallen by the wayside over the years so some caution is advised.
Diamond films are very easy to produce, but it is hard to make good discrete devices with this material let alone integrated circuits. If any of you are following CREE, silicon carbide is a good example of how hard it is to get beyond the discrete device stage with these small-lattice, high bandgap materials. The real market is in power transistors and radar due to high-temperature operation and high thermal conductivities of these materials.
The achievement of n-type doped layers in diamond is an exciting possibility. The explosion in gallium nitride technology since 1991 is due to the achievement of both n- and p-type doping in the epitaxial layers of a material that has been known since the 50's. This breakthrough has led to the blue LED and the blue laser by Nichia and others.
The technology discussed in the patent is a little different though. What they can do is convert the diamond to n-type material from the top down rather than growing it n-type. The technique is similar to lithium drifting in silicon and germanium X-ray detectors with the addition of a photo-assisted process which raises the possibility of patterning the diffusion.
The big question is how long will it take to diffuse lithium into the diamond lattice (which is very dense) to produce an n-type substrate to process into devices. If they can make fast, high-temperature, power transistors with this process, there is a big market waiting. I would discount the idea of integrated circuits -- what is stated is the "standard hype" for all of these new semiconductor technologies -- IMHO, silicon CMOS and silicon-on-insulator will have these markets for at least the next 50 years.
Two other applications are mentioned in the patent, displays and surface conversion to change the appearance or properties of diamond.
These are also exciting -- the display market is huge and the current passive and active LCD displays have some real problems in achieving large sizes and low power consumption. A diamond field-emission display that worked -- that is has low voltages and large areas -- could run away in this market. Changing the color of diamonds does not excite me, but if the properties of diamond films could be modified for industrial uses such as harder tooling with better heat dissipation I do get excited.
There is really no information about the nuclear battery. If anyone calls them, I would be curious which technology they are planning to use: RTG, thermionic, thermophotovoltaic, alpha- or beta-voltaic? All of these technologies have problems. I wonder which one they think they can make money with?
To summarize, if I had any cash I would take a flyer in this stock and may do so later if the price comes back down. If this company has good management, they have some real potential in a number of markets. However, this is definitely a long term hold -- these technologies take a lot of time and money to work out all of the bugs.
Regards,
Tom Swift |
