>> You also want then reaching for their check books
I've been thinking about how much more processor speed
the market wants ... the intertwingled dance of supply
and demand.
At this moment, I have all the processor I need in the
range 200-300Mhz and I think that generalized to the
majority of the market. 400, 500, 700 Mhz ... ho, hum.
History has shown us, however, that new demand will be
created by as yet "unforunderstood" applications: video,
DSL, cable, etc, etc.
Back in the 60's there was a fellow, Herb Grolsch, writing
for ComputerWorld ... then the premier trade rag. He coined
"Grolsch's Law" - "Computer power proceeds as the square of
the price."
"Lowe's Observation", however, notes that "Computer performance
delivered to the end user is a constant" ... that is to say,
that I can do today pretty much what I could do 20 years ago,
prettier maybe, but substantially the same and with the same
types of delays in pretty much the same places.
This leads to "Lowe's Lemma" which reads "However much computer
performance the hardware guys create, the software guys can
figure out how to piss it away".
Apropos of Lowe's Lemma, Note that there will be no Windows 99
or Windows 2000 ... NT is the future ... and NT is a FAT PIG.
A cute FAT PIG, perhaps, but a FAT PIG none the less.
Late 98 and 99 will mark a major discontinuous software and
web transition ... followed by hugely increased demand for
"renewed" performance.
People are also going to want LOTS of BIG disks ... |
