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Hey all:
OK - my understanding is the following
1) Post 666 - saracen - not far from the truth. terrible to do a deal like this, with Vancouver brokers, and present all the overgang before and after a major announcement.
W/r/t information leaks - if there were any leaks, this reduces the credibility of small biotechs in general and the company in particular. I have no way of knowing whether this is the case and sincerely hope it was not. However, a good rule of thumb for the little guy is that they will be the last to know certain things.
I would imagine promoting such entities is almost impossible.
2) Ms. Forthright -
"The Roche deal seems to be about atrial fibrillation. In this condition the heart doesn't pump very efficiently, often causing congestive heart failure. Another problem with this arrhythmia is that blood clots can form in the heart and then break off causing strokes, and other nasty things including death. Currently there are no satisfactory treatments for this relatively common problem."
As I understand it, atrial fibrilation is about 1/10 of the potential uses for four or five of the NRT compounds Roche licensed. The main focus of the research is in the ventricular area. So the deal is that 1/10 of the company or less was leveraged for a potential 86mm US. Not bad. This has definitely been overlooked by everyone, including me.
Mr. Forthright, your critical eye here is well founded with regard to upfront payments. I am relatively sure that NRT received 10% or less of an upfront from Roche. The rest is milestone "funny money" that investors can take or leave. In fact, my valuation model adjusts for the funny money phenomenon. No coincidence.
I am still bullish on the company. When the warrant situation clears up, and the long term incentives of all stockholders become better aligned than they are at present, I will resume full bullishness on the stock too, regardless of the perceptions of some as promotion.
FJA
PS - Allen, good question - how much "promotion" is too much?
PPS- I don't think Roche acquired any shares on the open market like CCM did, but I am not sure. |
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