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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 40.56+10.3%Nov 28 12:59 PM EST
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To: Paul Engel who wrote (55543)5/15/1998 11:39:00 AM
From: Burt Masnick  Read Replies (2) of 186894
 
Kurlak's analogy with Memory chips is off base because -
1) Memory chips really were a commodity
2) Dozens of companies were producing identical products
3) The laws of economics then went to work
BUT:
1)Microprocesors are not commodities
2)Only three companies produce any volume
3)He could have said the same time anytime in the past that there was a die shrink or process change. All of sudden your factory (and thus the world supply) is suddenly bigger by 50%.

It used to be that Tom Kurlak erred by assuming that shipments levels of the past were a perfect predictor of the future. Now he is predicting that die shrinks and process changes are an inevitable problem. All Intel has to do is control wafer starts and the "problem" goes away. Of course there will be no large new markets for processors (like Europe, Asia, South America), no new applications (like automobiles, set top boxes),no switch in buying habits (one computer per child plus 1 for the parents, like tv sets).

Interesting fact. Our company has almost completed upgrading every computer in the company. There are a lot of otherwise perfectly usable replaced 486 computers that are going to be auctioned off. Only, nobody wants them. Such is the world.

Burt
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