I believe that the "ANDA's" that will be filed in 1997, a few may extend into 98, including those currently in the pipeline could exceed
$2.5 billion in sales, based on last years sales. (Potential market sales)Time frame next five years, bulk occuring within the next three. That would be counting on a Procardia XL "ANDA" as well, which I believe is a possibility, considering the patent expiration and the shear sales volume. Yes figure in competition swallowing some market share at some point, but not on the same level. Im talking about a niche market, simuliar to Watson where their is not as much competition nor interest. If they file a Procardia "ANDA" you will see a mass exodus out of Biovail, plus the strong movement typical of announcing a potential billion dollar drug application.
Yes, many have failed with people who are not as qualified, lets face it, the reality is understanding the drug. If you place the right people in the proprer positions, it simply works. To my amazement is how few know about the company, or its track record. Beyond some of the major institutions and few smart players. As far as Ivax, it is history. Many mistakes were made early on, before Verapamil, and true they never recovered. Many companies bank on single drugs or a few to
deliver results, and they often fail. Andrx 18 formulations, more to follow early on, and how old is the company? Not very old, how long public, not long. In most cases additional ANDA's by other companies now need not to fall within the original producer and Andrx patents.
That basically makes a job twice as difficult, for additional players.
Expect an earlier approval and expect " blockbuster" additional ANDA's. What do you think of the Sepracor deal with Andrx? |
