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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy?
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To: Shege Dambanza who wrote (1526)5/15/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: Clam Clam  Read Replies (2) of 6974
 
Goldman Sachs is defending Siebel today. After hearing from some sources that Cisco was not happy with Siebel, Goldman reports that Cisco simply wants to go to Siebel 98 and is anxious to get upgraded. According to Siebel, this is supposed to be done by August.

Hedge funds start rumors all the time. Sometimes they are right but mostly its just to create some volatility for their own trading positions.

Even if Cisco is unhappy, the probablity of them tossing out Siebel is trivial, IMO. A lot of people I know that have it either don't use it or don't like it so it wouldn't be much of a surprise if Cisco weren't thrilled.

The lack of referencability is true from what I hear. However, that hasn't stopped Siebel from growing like a weed. That is the bottom line. If they continue with the growth, the stock is a good buy. If they don't, the stock is an even better short. Competition heating up should crimp SEBL's efforts in all but the high-end bake-offs. The question is if they can consistently win enough big deals on a quarterly basis to keep the growth up.

Assuming the street wants 10-15% sequential growth in license revenues, Siebel needs to recognize 14-15k seats this quarter at $3k per seat or about 9k seats if the ASP is $5k. That is no small task but it is definitely possible.

Thats my 2 cents for the day.

Go SEBL!! - oh wait, I don't own SEBL. :)
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