Dear Doug - hard to say. Traditionally, HDSL is viewed as a cheap substitute for T1. There has been a lot of deployment in the commercial setting. ADSL and RADSL, and to a lesser extent, IDSL and SDSL, which I would group - not necessarily industry accepted grouping - as xDSL, are supposed to be both commercial and residential. Within ADSL, there are at least two main competing technologies, AMATI [now TI] and WSTL. From the investor POV, there are too many players and too many competing technologies for a market yet to be defined. WSTL was hot for awhile then it is not. AMATI was seen to be left to die and got resurrected. So, one should be careful in buying into the xDSL phenomenon. However, sooner or later, the last mile problem must be resolved if the technology revolution is to advance to the next level. The good thing is that with so many CLECs trying to invade the traditional RBOCs, the latter cannot behave like what they did to ISDN. For instance, I am holding a little bit of DSTR who is going to install RADSL infrastructure for Teleport in NYC. Having said that, it is still a hi risk situation. Sticking to PAIR or ADTN will allow the investor a revenue base to judge. Actually, I ve also bet a little in other emerging technologies and way underwater
Conclusion? IMHO, noone - and that includes the pundits - knows where we are heading.
Sorry to confuse you more <g>
rgds Bosco |
