JP,
"1) HWP grew PC units 70%, and lost money due to a colapse in corporate desk top pricing."
Well, JP they were competing in the channel with CPQ who was dumping their excess inventory. DELL is not in that channel. Also, DELL does not compete in the subzero market like HWP, CPQ Packard-Bell, and IBM. The subzero is a low revenue low margin product.
HWP PC units climbed disproportionately to their revenue increase
due to the impact of the subzero volume on their business.
What this actually means is that HWP, IBM, CPQ and BELL cannot
compete with DELL on both growth in revenue and profitability.
"2) the NSM report is troubling as they are a supplier to DELL for components."
The NSM report simply mirrors the problems that CPQ, IBM and BELL
had with their excess inventory. They have to work it down so they cut orders for serial chips and ethernet chips.
What does this have to do with DELL? Well it is good news for DELL because it means that their competitors are weighted down by their own business model.
"3) The TK report that knocked INTC, if you read it, it makes a tremendous amount of sense. "
So INTC can now make more chips with its 2.5 micron production facilities. Oh MY GOSH! What can INTC do? How about shut down an old plant. That is what they have done in the past as they move from one generation of manufacturing equipment to the next.
"4) Profit taking, as the stock has run some 40% or so in 4 weeks."
Well I am always for a little profit taking. But by my estimates DELL has a fair value of $ 95/share. Using trailing P/E with a high growth company like DELL is IMO a mistake.
I was right about you being sloppy with your stock opinions.
I was right also about you playing a zero sum game.
You say:
"I generaly try to avoid others opinions on stocks. I find they screw me up, cause me not to sleep, I have even sold a stock I liked because some one talked me out of it, It was a bad move."
But you are trying to convince others to listen to your opinion which
is not based on a broad array of facts. Do you think they should listen to you?
The others on the thread have pointed out the error in your statement:
"There is no hint from DELL that DELL will beat numbers either"
Please do your own fact finding, then engage brain before formulating opinions. Many will be thankful! |
